Poll shows Kay Hagan with 9-point lead

For the first time in 2014 polls on North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has jumped out to a nine-point lead over Republican opponent Thom Tillis.

A poll released Sept. 15 by right-leaning Raleigh-based firm American Insights found that Hagan held a 43-34 advantage among likely voters — marking the largest lead for either of the two front-running candidates, who were deadlocked throughout August.

Since January, polls have shown Tillis and Hagan jostling for the position, often exchanging leads of two or three percentage points. Hagan registered a six-point advantage in one July survey, when Tillis was in Raleigh wrapping up the N.C. General Assembly’s short session as speaker of the house.

Hagan’s lead comes two weeks after the first televised Senate debate on Sept. 3. It was the first of three scheduled debates between the candidates.

“The negative onslaught of advertising against Tillis, combined with the debate, may have caused the movement in the race,” said Pearce Godwin, director of American Insights, in an email.

While less than 40 percent of likely voters surveyed watched the debate, 79 percent have either seen or heard political advertisements, and Hagan holds an 11-point lead among that category of voters.

Fifty-four percent of likely voters who watched the debate determined Hagan the winner, while 33 percent favored Tillis.

Wilson Parker, president of UNC Young Democrats and the director of state and external relations for student government, said the poll’s results reflect how upset North Carolina voters are with Tillis’ record as a state lawmaker.

“Voters are becoming more aware as we are coming closer to November,” he said.

Parker said voters see Hagan as a moderate who is willing to break away from fellow Democratic senators on certain issues.

But Kathryn Walker, chairwoman of UNC College Republicans, said in an email that Hagan is not moderate because she votes with President Obama most of the time and cast the deciding vote for the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare.

Nearly half of likely young voters surveyed watched the Sept. 3 debate, and in the poll, Hagan’s highest approval rating among voting age groups was with voters aged 18-34.

The poll had a 4.6 percent margin of error. Godwin said he’s confident that Hagan holds a lead over Tillis, though the size of her advantage is unclear.

But Republican turnout tends to be higher than Democrats in midterm elections, Godwin said, which could allow Tillis to make up the difference.

And Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said people often focus too much on the results of a single poll.

Other recent polls have shown Tillis in the lead, Walker said, and the race is unlikely to show a clear winner until Election Day.

“This is one of the closest races in the country,” Walker said. “We won’t know who will win this election until the votes are cast.”

state@dailytarheel.com