Gubernatorial contenders return for 2016 race

The campaign for North Carolina governor in 2016 isn’t quite underway, but analysts are already trying to predict the race — and ratings published Jan. 23 show that Gov. Pat McCrory could be vulnerable.

It’s the first time in more than two decades that the state has had a Republican running as an incumbent, said Mitch Kokai, a spokesman for the right-leaning John Locke Foundation.

“The last time was in 1988 at the end of the Reagan era — ever since then things have looked pretty solidly good for the Democrats in North Carolina,” Kokai said.

Rob Schofield, policy director at the left-leaning N.C. Policy Watch, said he thinks McCrory’s low popularity puts him at a disadvantage.

“McCrory has yet to find his footing and establish an identity,” he said. “The public perceives that he has not driven the seat in Raleigh and that he is definitely more of a reactor.”

On the Democratic side of the ballot there has been wide speculation that N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper is looking to represent the party in the election. Kenneth Spaulding, a Durham attorney, has already declared his candidacy.

“Though Cooper won a lot of statewide elections, the thing that he is going to have some trouble with is name recognition,” Kokai said.

Cooper does have a leg up on other Democrats who would think of opposing him, Kokai said, because his name has been on the ballot for the past four elections.

Democrats are likely to try to cast McCrory as too conservative for the state, Kokai said.

“You can really expect that the Democrats will continue to spend a lot of their time attacking McCrory,” he said.

Still, a Public Policy Polling survey from December found that McCrory led Cooper in the governor’s race by a seven-point margin.

Historically, the North Carolina governor’s mansion has been held by Democrats. There were only three Republican governors in the entire 20th century.

“Whatever the reasons, Pat McCrory’s looking at a tougher race for election than, say, Jim Hunt in 1996 or Jim Martin in 1988,” said conservative analyst Carter Wrenn in an email.

But the race could be tough for both parties, Kokai said — because though McCrory holds the incumbent advantage, Democrats have an extensive state history behind them.

“The demographics in North Carolina are divided equally between the Republicans and Democrats,” Wrenn said. “I don’t know if any governor could be ‘popular’ today.”

Regardless of which candidate winds up challenging McCrory, Schofield said a lot of the governor’s race depends on the 2016 presidential election.

“Coattails from a strong presidential candidate will mean good things for a candidate in their party and bring out a lot of voters who wouldn’t ordinarily vote.”

state@dailytarheel.com