Bush Needs More Training in Foreign Policy Arena

President "Dad" did not take advantage of the opportunity to overthrow Iraqi president Saddam Hussein after the Gulf War success in 1991. George W. intends to take measures to oust Hussein. George W. has a no-holds- barred position on foreign policy that continues to scare some Americans.

But the president-elect is a quick study. He proved that by rapidly rebounding after failing to pass a pop quiz on foreign policy posed by a reporter. In a speech delivered at the Reagan Library in California, Bush regained much of the ground he had lost by setting out in broad terms the kind of foreign policy he would embrace as president.

He struck a middle course, rejecting the isolationism that is gaining favor in the Republican Party while declaring that he would not dispatch the U.S. military to the far corners of the world unless American national interests were directly at stake.

Bush followed up his speech with an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press," where he got more specific about which foreign entanglements he would avoid as president. Haiti and Somalia topped the list. When reminded that his father had originally dispatched American troops to Somalia, Bush faulted the Clinton administration for changing the mission from its original humanitarian purpose and said he wouldn't "second-guess my good father. My good dad."

W. sees it necessary to criticize the Clinton administration for its "vague, endless deployments." The rhetoric is provocative, but hollow. Politicians and policymakers can't responsibly make such declarations in the abstract because there is no "one-size-fits-all" foreign policy in the post-Cold War era. Bush attacks something that is difficult to attack. Taken together, these deployments currently add up to 30,000 troops, a small number in an overall force of 1.4 million people - and substantially fewer than the 200,000 troops the United States maintains in Europe and Asia.

George W. seems to struggle when confronted with any perplexing foreign affairs question.

Since bumbling through an embarrassing round of malapropisms and misstatements that raised questions about his ability to lead the world, Bush has turned to an assortment of foreign policy wonks to help mold his views on international affairs (and teach him the difference between Slovakia and Slovenia). So at least he knows whom to appoint.

New national security adviser Condoleezza Rice could be his best move since placing Colin Powell at his side. Rice, a 46-year-old political spark plug, is just right for the position. She is destined to be - not only because of her race and gender, but also because of her wit and fire - a politico-celebrity superstar.

In true commitment to the next president, Rice dismisses the ridicule of Bush's slips - his referring to the people of Kosovo as "Kosovarians" or Greeks as "Grecians" - as a "parlor game" played by elites.

"Governor Bush has not spent the last 10 years of his life at Council on Foreign Relations meetings," she says. "He's spent the last 10 years of his life building a business and being governor of a state. The presidency is not just the president. It's a whole team of people who are going to get things done."

This is true. But as another quick study from Texas, Lyndon Johnson, once learned, a president will have to do more than scurry to advisers whenever questions about America's interventions in the world arise.

One of Rice's big challenges now is to help Bush show that he can answer them on his own.

American participation in the Kosovo peacekeeping force amounts to 4,000 troops, 15 percent of the total. Europe is paying the bills for rebuilding the war-torn province, and the United Nations is running the operation.

Would Bush have ignored Kosovo the way his father ignored Bosnia? He needs to school himself on such issues.

Admittedly, the Clinton administration mishandled Somalia. But does Bush mean the United States shouldn't have been there at all?

He says he opposes military intervention for humanitarian reasons, yet many of the same people who advise him on foreign policy worked for his father when President Bush sent troops to Somalia without a clear mission and exit strategy.

Bush might now say that he would not intervene in Haiti. But would he hold the same conviction if Haitian refugees turned up by the boatload on the Florida shore? The peaceful invasion by U.S. military forces was made possible by the joint intervention of former President Jimmy Carter and Powell, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The result is far less than perfect. But Bush's brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, isn't facing a massive refugee problem that risks unsettling his state.

Bush said he would cut off aid to Russia until that country stops bombing women and children in the breakaway republic of Chechnya. How realistic is that? The United States gives very little direct aid and holding up a half-billion dollars in Export-Import Bank assistance could send Russia spiraling into a desperate situation economically, without easing its war against terrorism in Chechnya.

Asked why he didn't apply the same unequivocal standard in cutting off economic ties with China for its human rights abuses, Bush revealed he is still his father's son.

Former President Bush once served as envoy to China and has always preached economic engagement. Such a huge market can't be ignored, says a former Reagan administration official, calling it "The Great Wall-Mart of China."

Bush might be a good student, but he hasn't yet demonstrated the depth and grasp of foreign policy he'll need to handle the essay questions that will be thrown at him if he's president.

Jonathan Hoffman is a conservative liberal from Stamford, Conn., who sees George Sr. moving to 1600 in a matter of months for that needed support. You can reach Mr. Hoffman for praise or persecution at jthoff@email.unc.edu.