Bush Approval High After 1st 100 Days

When President Bush entered the White House on the bitterly cold and rainy afternoon of Jan. 20, he did so with low public expectations and, many said, without a mandate.

Many wondered whether the new president would be able to overcome the stigma of the far-from-decisive election, a near-even split in Congress and questions about his experience to lead the country.

His campaign and inaugural address were both filled with lofty goals, including instituting the largest tax cut in national history, reforming education and ushering in a new era of bipartisanship.

One hundred days into his term, some analysts and politicians say Bush has lived up to his promises and exceeded expectations, while others say he has fallen short of his goals and leaves much to be desired.

Overcoming the Election

Before the election was decided, analysts and average citizens alike speculated that the new president, whomever he turned out to be, would have difficulty being accepted as legitimate by the American people.

Even now, three months after the inauguration, some people still harbor such feelings. "I think (the closeness of the election) makes people wonder if he is our legitimate president," said Chris Fitzsimon, executive director of Common Sense, a liberal think tank based in Raleigh.

A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll indicated that close to a quarter of Americans still don't accept Bush as a legitimate president.

But Rep. Walter Jones, R-N.C., who recently hosted Bush during his visit to promote his tax cut in Greenville, said the future looks bright for the Bush administration.

"I don't think (the election) really affected (Bush's presidency) from the standpoint of his ability to lead the nation," Jones said in a recent telephone interview. "I don't think there is a cloud over this administration. I think the sun is shining."

Bush has enjoyed high job-approval ratings thus far. A Gallup poll taken last week gave Bush a 62 percent approval rating, seven points higher than Clinton in his first 100 days. "Right now in terms of public perception, he is doing very well," said Michael Munger, professor and chairman of the political science department at Duke University. "But I think that will dissipate."

Munger said most presidents' approval ratings tend to drop after the 100-day honeymoon period.

Exceeding Expectations

Munger attributed Bush's strong showing in the polls to his selection of a diverse Cabinet. He said this combination made it difficult for people on both sides of the spectrum to be critical. "It's the most diverse administration in history," Munger said, adding that it would be easier for Democrats to criticize the conservative nature of the cabinet if it were not so diverse.

Also, many feel that Bush has benefited from low expectations when he entered office. "He has not said anything stupid, and he has not done anything stupid, and that's what most people expected to happen," Munger said.

But Jones said the notion that most people initially had low expectations of Bush was invalid and is the product of a liberal bias of some in the media.

Jones instead credited Bush's high popularity to his sticking to the campaign promise of reducing taxes, his handling of the Chinese spy-plane incident and the perception that he is trustworthy. "From day one, he has been upfront with the American people," he said.

An Unproductive Start?

Munger noted that, unlike other presidencies, the Bush administration had not proposed a great deal of new legislation in its first 100 days.

"We often base our perception of the president on the amount of legislation in the first 100 days," Munger said.

For this reason, analysts of all political stripes say the 100-day benchmark, a tradition set in 1933 when President Franklin D. Roosevelt gave himself 100 days to push the New Deal through Congress, is unfair and misleading. "My view is that gauging the success of the president in the first 100 days is ludicrous," said John Hood, president of the John Locke Foundation, a Raleigh-based conservative think tank. "It is biased in favor of presidents who want to create new programs."

Grappling With Gridlock

Munger said there were two major reasons for the lack of legislative activity from Bush's White House.

First, Munger said, the delay in announcing the winner of the election caused Bush to have two fewer months to assemble a transition team and prepare for his presidency.

The second factor Munger suggested was the even-party split in the Senate.

Munger said Senate Republicans had weak party loyalty -- citing the Senate's trimming of Bush's proposed $1.6 trillion tax cut by a half-trillion dollars with the help of Republican Senators.

To compensate for this, Bush recently has taken his show on the road, appealing directly to the American people, in hopes of gaining enough public support for the tax cut to put pressure on members of Congress to pass it. "I think he has proven he has a good ability to take his message to the people, which is why the Democrats end up getting a larger tax reduction than they wanted," said Mickey Edwards, a professor at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Uniter or Divider?

While most agree that Bush has kept his campaign promise of cutting taxes, some are skeptical about another campaign promise Bush made -- to be a "uniter not a divider."

Rep. Mel Watt, D-N.C., criticized Bush for not reaching out to those with opposing views. "I think his agenda has been hijacked by the far right of the party," Watt said in a telephone interview last week. "There hasn't been any effort to reach out to the center of the spectrum."

Some analysts speculated that the fact Bush did not have a mandate would force him to have to work more closely with the Democrats, but Watt disagreed.

"I haven't seen any indication that it is forcing him to do that," Watt said.

Watt agreed that Bush had surrounded himself with a diverse and highly-qualified group of advisers, but said that mattered little to him if they were all right-wingers. "My advice to him is to do what he said he was going to do in the election campaign and build a moderate agenda."

The Days Ahead

Though Bush might be riding high in the polls at the moment, popularity can often rise or fall based on a single incident or issue and many of Bush's successes could be potential pitfalls.

Case in point: Bush's Cabinet.

"He had a very successful Cabinet selection process. He got some high-profile names on it," Hood said. "When you have a lot of high-profile people, you have a greater risk of interdepartmental conflict."

In the short run, the tax cut appears to be the determining factor of Bush's success. "I think his agenda rises or falls on his tax cut," Hood said.

But the ultimate success of the Bush administration likely will rest on other issues in the future that have more long-term ramifications than the tax cut.

Hood said Bush's education reforms could have a more permanent impact on his presidency than a tax cut. "(Education) has more long-term benefits for him and his party than the tax cut. People expect Republicans to cut taxes," he said.

For now, it appears the first 100 days is only a glimpse into what might lie ahead for the Bush administration and by no means can be used a definite indicator. "There is nothing magic about the number 100," Edwards said. "Your presidency is built upon four years, not 100 days."

The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.