UNC Growth Tops National Average

Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 is an annual report released by the National Center for Education Statistics, an arm of the U.S. Department of Education. This year it projects a 16 percent increase in college enrollment during the next decade.

But according to estimates from UNC-system officials, UNC-CH is predicted to grow by an overall increase -- on campus and off campus -- of 33.6 percent, more than double the national average.

Judith Pulley, UNC-system associate vice president of academic planning, said the main reason for UNC's rapid development is simply an increase in college-aged people.

"One of the primary drives of our enrollment growth is an increase in high school graduates for this state," she said.

William Hussar, an economist working for NCES, said this "baby boom echo" is the cause of the population surge for college-age students.

"The baby boomers' children are now coming into age and going to college," Hussar said. "I hope that schools will use this information to help them plan."

Jerome Lucido, associate director of admissions at UNC-CH, said although the university's admissions office uses a two-year projection to set goals and guidelines, the decade projection is significant because of the sheer size of the classes expected to enroll.

"The baby boomer effect could diminish later on," he said. "But the migrations, brand-new populations to the state, like the increasing Latino population right now -- will continue."

UNC-CH is already facing difficulties this year, with a larger incoming freshman class than earlier predicted and construction of new residence halls barely keeping up with demand.

Joyner Residence Hall, previously slated to be renovated this fall, has already been reopened to temporarily accommodate on-campus students. Renovations are slated to resume in January.

While UNC-CH's 2001 head count is 24,500, including undergraduate and graduate students, Lucido said the 2010 totals could potentially reach 29,000.

Pulley said problems arising from the population growth will be a lack of funding for housing, programs and everything from library stocks to faculty positions.

"It'll have an impact on the quality of education received, but we don't know how yet."

Lucido said the main goal for the administration is to maintain UNC-CH's standards and devotion to students. "This is (a school) that, while it is large, it maintains a sense of community, a special quality of life that is important," he said. "You don't want to grow without the resources to provide students with the experience that they deserve."

Pulley said to aid the growth, the state must continue to fund the universities and commit to retaining the organizations and programs that the UNC-system presently holds.

"We're going to get full funding for our enrollment growth, (but) it doesn't provide for all the support programs we need," she said.

Despite the obvious problems bound to surface from increased population -- crowded housing and classrooms -- Pulley said there could be benefits.

"The primary benefit is for the state," she said.

"We still lag behind the nation in the number of baccalaureate degrees, but increased enrollment will up that number and also help the state's economic competitiveness."

The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.