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The Daily Tar Heel

Change Marks Bush's 1st Year

Move forward one month.

When "The Daily Show" resumed broadcasting after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Stewart described to his audience, with tears in his eyes, how "subliminably" was no longer a punch line.

The temporary abandonment of "Bushisms" as national punch lines after Sept. 11 is indicative of some of the changes in public perception Bush experienced during his first year in office.

At the beginning of Bush's term on Jan. 20, 2001, the nation was still largely divided over the outcome of the hotly contested 2000 presidential election, and international leaders saw a political newcomer more interested in unilateralism than allies.

But a lot can happen in a year.

The Sept. 11 attacks changed Bush's policy focus, unified the nation behind him and prompted the president to organize an international coalition to fight terrorism. But even though public perception of Bush has fluctuated, experts say Bush's stance on and approach to issues remains fundamentally unchanged.

Lessons in Foreign Policy

In the months after the Sept. 11 attacks, Bush transformed from a foreign policy "novice" to an international unifier, said Albert Eldridge, Duke University professor of political science.

"Through his actions in creating an international coalition to combat terrorism, Bush demonstrated that he understands the complexity of the world system," Eldridge said. "He demonstrated an understanding that the United States doesn't have the unilateral power to take on the world."

Eldridge said Bush's decisive handling of the Sept. 11 attacks -- both domestically and internationally -- resulted in public confidence.

According to a Sept. 15 Newsweek poll, Bush's post-Sept. 11 approval ratings of 82 percent were as high as Franklin D. Roosevelt's in the days following the bombing of Pearl Harbor.

In early October, Bush's approval ratings peaked at 92 percent. As the conflict in Afghanistan intensified, Bush kept approval ratings high with continuous televised updates as the joint Northern Alliance-U.S. military forces toppled the ruling Taliban and shut down al-Qaida terrorist cells.

"A crisis successfully weathered naturally improves public perception," Eldridge said.

But Bush had a rough start in the international arena, meeting criticism for his unilateral approach to foreign policy.

Bush's handling of the Kyoto Protocol has been cited by experts as an incident that established his inexperience in dealing with foreign policy.

European leaders attacked Bush for his decision in late March to withdraw from the 1997 Kyoto treaties, an international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Bush called the treaty unacceptable because it would harm the American economy and failed to hold developing nations to strict emissions limits.

But many European leaders considered Bush's withdrawal a slap in the face.

"Bush told the world that he was going to play it alone and have the U.S. follow an individual, unilateral approach to foreign politics," Eldridge said.

While doing little to increase his international credibility, Bush's successful negotiation in April of the release of U.S. military personnel detained in China began a shift toward domestic approval of Bush's foreign policy performance.

After only four days, 24 U.S. soldiers aboard a Navy spy plane collided with a Chinese jet fighter and made an emergency landing in China returned to the United States, but negotiations for the return of the downed plane took months.

"Whether or not the spy plane incident improved Bush's standing in the international community probably depends on where you're located," Eldridge said. "In the end, the situation only marginally improved the world view of Bush as an international leader."

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Several experts said the events of Sept. 11 solidified, as no other event of the past year, Bush's role as a world leader.

But as the shock and fear from the terrorist attacks faded from the public's minds, other issues slowly crept back into the spotlight.

After a month of discussion and negotiation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders agreed in December to reduce their nuclear stockpiles.

But in a move that seems to be characteristic of his early unilateral approach to foreign policy, Bush also withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in December, paving the way for a proposed missile defense shield to be established in the coming years.

Political Battles at Home

Before Inauguration Day, Bush faced the task of warming the attitudes of a public already divided about his presidency. Just more than half the nation approved of Bush, according to a January 2001 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

Yet in the public's eyes, Bush bounced back quickly. In an early February CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll Bush scored a 57 percent approval rating, and 62 percent rated him as a "trustworthy" official.

In the first few months of his presidency Bush received a mix of criticism -- mostly from his struggles with Democrats about his proposed tax cut and campaign finance reform -- and public praise for his national mobility. In his first 13 weeks in office Bush traveled 21 days and visited 26 different states.

From February until August, Bush's domestic policy primarily focused on economic rather than social issues.

In early June, Congress approved Bush's $1.35 trillion across-the-board tax cut. The cut, which is the largest in American history, reduced tax rates, eliminated tax penalties for married couples and did away with the estate tax.

While taxpayers rejoiced, Washington, D.C., Democrats worried that such a massive tax cut would cause deficit problems, especially with the nation's economy slowing.

John Lapp, an N.C. State University economics professor, said there were a few problems with Bush's tax cut.

"I'm inclined to think that the tax cuts we got in the summer were a little too weighted in the high end," he said.

Lapp said Bush's economic policy is sound, aside from the tax cuts.

"He did reasonably well," he said. "He showed restraint and supported the Fed and its rate-cutting policies."

Bush also received a mix of public praise and criticism for his decision to allow limited stem cell research.

UNC political science Professor David Lowery said Bush's decision was the only viable option. "The president had tremendous pressure from the scientific community and took advantage of the only escape hatch he had available," he said.

But the first year of the Bush presidency ended on a down note for the administration.

The collapse of Texas energy giant Enron in December led to allegations of financial mismanagement and wrongdoing among Enron executives, many of whom are prominent political contributors to Bush and other Republicans.

But George Rabinowitz, UNC professor of political science, said Bush has a chance to successfully avoid negative ramifications from the Enron collapse.

The extent of the long-term potential political damage depends how closely Vice President Dick Cheney's energy policies matched Enron corporate interests, Rabinowitz said. "Bush will come out of the situation OK if Cheney and his energy planning commission did not formulate policy according to Enron interests."

Rabinowitz said Enron will not have any short-term effects on the presidency, adding that Bush ended his first year in office with much the same approaches and beliefs with which he began it.

Rabinowitz added that the post-Sept. 11 Bush is no different than pre-Sept. 11 Bush in terms of political character.

"Bush is Bush," he said. "His simplicity works well in straightforward situations, and while it was a tragic event, for Bush September 11 was like a political gold mine."

The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.

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