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The Daily Tar Heel

Economists Predict Bond's Long-Term Benefits to State

While the bond is just beginning to take effect, legislators and economists expect it will aid North Carolina's recovery from the recession that has gripped the state for the last few months.

Michael Walden, N.C. State University economics professor, said the bond projects' effects on the state economy will be both short-term and long-term.

Walden said the main short-term effect is the new jobs provided to people in the construction industry. "(Bond construction) will provide jobs ranging from architects to designers to brick layers," he said.

Walden said the long-run impact is the expanded institutional benefits and effects on students' futures. "Our economy has changed to one where our education has an impact on the standard of living."

Walden said students are spending more time in school and getting better degrees, especially as education becomes more important in today's society.

The immediate impacts upon the economy primarily will be from direct effects of the construction.

J.B. Milliken, UNC-system vice president for public affairs, said the predictions for growth stem from the multiplier effect -- the idea that when money is spent, it will be re-spent in the economy, thus stimulating growth. "Every dollar spent on local construction generates between $2.25 and $3.75 in the local economy," Milliken said. "The bond is essentially North Carolina's stimulus package during these economic times."

Mike Luger, director of the UNC-Chapel Hill Office of Economic Development, pointed out the local effects of the bond. "The Triangle has a particular effect because of the concentration (of bond funds) here," he said.

Many of the bond projects are focused in the Triangle area -- with UNC-CH, N.C. State, and N.C. Central University getting about $1 billion of the funding.

Luger pointed out that the bond program will not only stimulate the economy, it also will help workers displaced from other industries due to the recession.

Luger said short-term effects will begin to be seen in the next few years. "Over the next three or four years, you're going to see indicators -- less unemployment and less drop in personal income -- due to the recession," he said.

Luger stressed the importance of the long-term effects of the higher education bond. "You're going to end up with a better educated population."

The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.

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