2002 N.C. Primary Elections Off to Unusual Start

Let the mixture simmer for a few weeks -- or months -- and then serve the results to voters on Election Day, Nov. 5.

It might not be a recipe for election disaster, but campaign officials and pundits alike are calling it one of the odder situations in N.C. political history.

Ferrel Guillory, director of UNC's Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life, said this primary election is unusual because the date is up in the air.

"We've had elections delayed before -- elections in June, elections in August," Guillory said. "But here we are, a week before the primaries were first scheduled, and the date's still uncertain."

Guillory said a long delay before the primary is held would hurt both parties in races statewide. "There is a great effort by both parties to have the primaries before September, otherwise it makes the general election a real sprint -- in campaign terms," he said.

The primaries were originally slated for May 7, until the N.C. Elections Commission decided March 12 to indefinitely postpone the elections because of two court cases and the extra cost of holding multiple primaries.

The first lawsuit, brought by the N.C. Republican Party and prominent Republican legislators, challenges the constitutionality of N.C. Senate and House districts in the N.C. Supreme Court.

The N.C. Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that the districts are unconstitutional. Unless the ruling is successfully appealed, legislators likely will have to redraw the districts this summer before the primaries can be held.

In the second case, the state of Utah appeared before the U.S. Supreme Court to contest the method used by the Census Bureau to account for residents who are not formally counted by the government.

If successful, Utah might win another seat in the U.S. House and cost North Carolina the 13th congressional district, which is based in part of the Triangle.

The U.S. Supreme Court has not issued a ruling.

Guillory said one of the other oddities about this year's election is the widespread impact the cases have had.

Even though only the U.S. House and N.C. legislative districts hinged on the judicial decisions, the primary delay has touched everything from town and county elections to the U.S. Senate race.

But officials say the impact is most pronounced in the newly created 13th U.S. House District, which faces the dual difficulty of a delayed primary and of disappearing from the electoral map if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Utah.

Joe Bonfiglio, communications director for Brad Miller's U.S. House campaign, said the delayed primaries make campaigning difficult.

"Our campaign and others are going ahead," he said. "But we've all slowed down a bit and are saving resources."

Miller is a N.C. senator from Wake County and one of six Democrats vying for the seat in the U.S. House.

Bonfiglio said all the campaigns have had a difficult time finding donors because the district's future is uncertain.

"The U.S. Supreme Court case has had donors say, 'You might not have a district to represent. Why should we give you money?,'" Bonfiglio said.

He added that the situation made it difficult to develop a long-term campaign strategy because no one knew when the primaries could be held.

But a spokesman for Carolyn Grant, a Raleigh businesswoman and one of three Republicans running in the 13th District, said the delay is benefiting Grant's campaign.

Jerry Blackwelder, Grant's communications director, said the race is a game of wait-and-see.

"It's just a question of when the primary will be," he said, adding that Grant is using the additional time to tour the district and meet with residents.

Blackwelder said the delay likely will aid Grant's campaign. "There are several strong Democrats in the race," he said. "The longer they fight among themselves, the better off we are."

That air of uncertainty and a need to change election strategy also has hit at least one of the U.S. Senate campaigns.

Officials working on the campaign of Democratic candidate Erskine Bowles recently announced that they are temporarily suspending further funding for television advertisements because the primary date is still unknown.

Bowles, a White House chief of staff under President Clinton, has out-raised his nearest two Democratic competitors -- Elaine Marshall, N.C. secretary of state, and Dan Blue, a representative from Wake County and former House speaker -- by at least six to one.

But Bowles, who raised $3.1 million in campaign funds, still trails behind leading Republican candidate Elizabeth Dole, a former president of the Red Cross and presidential Cabinet member, in both fund raising and voter polls.

Dole has raised $5.3 million -- fueled partly by endorsements from Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., and President Bush.

According to an Elon University poll conducted in early March, Dole also has a commanding lead in the race with 53 percent of people having a favorable opinion of her. Bowles comes in a distant second with 14 percent.

Guillory said a late primary would hurt the Democrats more in the Senate campaign since their candidates are generally less well-known than Dole, who is known for her brief presidential bid in 2000. "The Democrats need time to raise the profile of their nominee," he said.

Guillory added that Dole's dominant position in the Republican field is an asset now but a potential liability later in the election.

"Any time a party can get through a primary without their nominee getting roughed up is a good thing," Guillory said. "But if the lack of roughing up becomes an issue and there's more heat for not debating, then (Dole's) image could be hurt."

The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.