The 2004 presidential election hinges primarily on President Bush's ability to restore voter confidence in the economy and to handle conflict in Iraq, not on who emerges as the Democratic candidate, pundits say.
But with Bush's approval ratings dropping below 60 percent for the first time since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Bush soon may have to answer for the faltering economy.
"The economy is the most dominant issue right now, and it's certainly bleaker than (Bush) would like," said Dan Glickman, director of Harvard University's Institute of Politics. "Presidents are judged by the economy. Bush is now the victim of very weak economic data."
Thad Beyle, UNC professor of political science, compared Bush's situation to the one his father faced in 1992 when he lost the presidential election to Bill Clinton.
"The economy was one of the major reasons his father did not get re-elected," Beyle said. "Right now, you're seeing Bush put forward this stimulus plan to try to revive the economy."
But Glickman, who served as a U.S. senator and as Clinton's Secretary of Agriculture, said that Bush has several advantages going into the election and that he will not necessarily fall into the same trap his father did.
"Being the incumbent is an obvious advantage, and he's politically savvier and in a better financial position than his dad," he said.
Glickman added that Bush may not have any strong opposition for some time because a Democratic front-runner has yet to emerge.
"We don't have a texture or flavor for how the contenders will perform," Glickman said. "We have to see how they will handle the stress and chaos of campaigning and how they handle the issues."
