Hopefuls to hold high-stakes debate

Voters have heard the television ads, the sound bites and the political analysts. Now, they'll get the chance to hear from the candidates themselves.

At 9 p.m., President Bush will debate Sen. John Kerry at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla., in what is expected to be the key turning point in the race for the White House.

The debate, which will air live on all four major television networks, will cover foreign policy and homeland security - areas, polls suggest, in which Bush has a clear advantage over Kerry.

But experts stressed that nothing is set in stone.

"This debate has the potential to be very important," said David Rohde, a professor of political science at Michigan State University. "Kerry has the chance to narrow the gap, even take the lead, or Bush can close the deal."

Coming into the debate, each candidate has been criticized for his approach to public speaking.

Kerry has been described as boorish and "out of touch" with the common man, while Bush is reputed to be down-to-earth but overly simplistic.

Rohde said having both style and substance is important.

"Debate is not a bare recitation of facts, but (the candidates) must create a connection with the audience," he said.

Presentation is also a key factor in televised debates. T.J. Walker, president of Media Training Worldwide, a media presentation firm in New York City, said image can be everything.

"Bush has improved in speaking since 2000," Walker said. "He is more relaxed. He has more body movement, which makes him appear less stiff. He is also skilled at delivering sound bites.

"Kerry, however, has an ancient rhetorical style, which he learned in his youth from John F. Kennedy, but it comes off as stilted, pompous, artificial."

Many campaigns have been won or lost on one-liners or gaffes during the debates.

During the 1988 presidential debate, Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis was asked if he would still oppose the death penalty if his wife were raped. Dukakis calmly and coolly said he would, a fact that George H.W. Bush used to show Dukakis as emotionless and inhuman.

"It's subtle. Debates can paint a candidate as stable, unstable, liberal, conservative," said Allan Louden, professor of communication and director of debate at Wake Forest University.

That's a fact that could work to Bush's advantage.

"When an incumbent president runs for re-election, the debates are always more important for the challenger, who has to establish that he can be a credible chief executive," said Bruce Altschuler, chairman of the political science department at the State University of New York-Oswego.

"It's up to Kerry to portray himself as a decisive leader with a program benefiting the average voter."

But the Democrat could do just that with his extensive debate experience. Kerry was a star debater at Yale University and has participated in many debates during his political career.

Bush also has experience and is generally judged to have won every major political debate he has entered, including the 2000 presidential debates against Democratic candidate Al Gore.

With his Southern drawl and Texas idioms, Bush is a known factor, and Kerry is the unknown.

"The bar is higher for Bush this time around: we know what to expect (from him)," Rohde said. "But no one is sure if John Kerry will show up."

Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.