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The Daily Tar Heel

Ohio's swings hold sway in national race

The outcome of the presidential election might boil down to one state Republicans and Democrats consider a symbolic prize in every race for the White House - and it's not Florida.

No Republican has ever captured the White House without capturing Ohio's 20 electoral votes. And only two Democrats in the 20th century, Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy, won the presidency without winning the Buckeye State.

Now, President Bush and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, are racking up thousands of frequent flier miles in an attempt to seize pivotal swing votes in the must-win state.

"Ohio swings back and forth," said David Paul, professor of political science at Ohio State University-Newark. "It tends to go with the winner."

Pundits have identified 11 swing states in the 2004 election, with Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida garnering the most attention.

In the battle over Ohio, Bush and Kerry are fighting hard to win Toledo, which has never witnessed so much attention. "It's bigger than anything that has ever happened in Toledo," said Lynn Bachelor, professor of political science at the University of Toledo.

But Bush and Kerry might consider the city the epicenter of their campaigns. Nestled along the shores of Lake Erie in the northwest corner of the state, its airwaves have been deluged with campaign ads at levels never seen before.

More than 14,300 ads have hit the airwaves since January. "It is terrible," Bachelor said. "You can't watch television without watching a slew of ads for both sides."

Campaign workers realize the abundant ads are wearing thin on Buckeye voters. "It is getting ridiculous because both sides are attacking nonstop," said Dan Trevas, spokesman for the Ohio Democratic Party.

Paul said the negative ads might hurt Bush in the election's waning days because of their frequency.

Bachelor said people living in Ohio's biggest cities, which historically vote Democratic, have to counter the heavily Republican suburbs. "It is difficult for Democrats to carry the state. They have to win over the independents."

Both campaigns try to energize their bases in opposite ends of the state. The Bush-Cheney ticket swoops into the rural areas, while the Kerry-Edwards tandem trumps in the populated urban regions.

In 2000, Vice President Al Gore lost Ohio by 3.6 percentage points. He turned off his ad machine in early October, essentially surrendering the state to Bush.

This year, neither side wants to repeat Gore's actions. But Bush did not visit the state from Oct. 2 until Friday, making some Republicans nervous. "It's imperative that Bush stop in Dayton again," said Sky Borgerding, executive director of the Montgomery County Republican Party. "He has to energize his base."

On Election Day, 2,000 paid volunteers from each party will monitor polling venues throughout the state to report any inaccuracies.

But Borgerding said he's pessimistic about the lack of political knowledge undecided voters might carry to the polling booths. "If people are still undecided at this point, they are the voters who are not interested in politics. After they vote, they might still be undecided."

Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.

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