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The Daily Tar Heel

Arafat's death poses quandary

Leader failed to groom a successor

Correction
Due to a reporting error, the Nov. 12 article "Arafat's death poses quandary" attributed a quotation to former U.S. Rep. Sam Gejdenson that actually was spoken by Mark Ensalaco, director of the International Studies Program at the University of Dayton.

With the passing of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat - ruthless murderer to some, freedom fighter to others - the world community is waiting anxiously to see who will take the reins in one of the Middle East's most embattled areas.

The Associated Press reported that the 75-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner passed away in a French hospital after slipping into a coma for unknown reasons. His body was flown to Egypt for funeral services.

But he also left behind cryptic clues about his fortune - and maintained control until the end of his life, failing to groom a successor and leaving open the potential for internal strife.

Most experts have said there are two choices for Arafat's replacement: Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmed Qureia.

Abbas, the former prime minister, will be in charge of the Palestine Liberation Organization, a promotion that will propel him toward Arafat's position.

Qureia is Arafat's current prime minister.

Both men are of Arafat's generation. And like Arafat, they are considered moderates in the region and could be expected to rule much as he did.

But Arafat, who fought for Palestinian statehood for more than 40 years, was a key public figure and a symbol of his people's struggle. Abbas or Qureia could struggle to recreate that support.

"They are weaker leaders politically than Arafat," said Rafael Reuveny, a professor at the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University.

"Arafat was a symbol of the struggle. He had credibility. He gave his life for the Palestinian liberation movement.

"(The Palestinian people) respected him, and from time to time, he was able to bring them under control."

Former U.S. Rep. Sam Gejdenson of Connecticut said Abbas and Qureia are the U.S. picks because they are relatively moderate.

"No matter who it is, there's going to be a struggle for that person to consolidate power," he said. "Arafat had been in control of so much."

A new generation of Palestinians that has grown up in annexed territories along the Gaza Strip also could hold the key to power.

"The second alternative (to Abbas and Qureia) is a group of young leaders that rose from within the West Bank and within the Gaza Strip," said Jonathan Mendilow, a political science professor at Rider University.

"They're more realistic. They don't owe anything to the Palestinian diaspora. ... They owe to their constituencies."

Mendilow said there also is the possibility that Hamas, the militant Islamic organization, will come to power. Or, he said, nothing will happen at all, and anarchy will reign.

"(Palestine will) have an institution and have society, but (the future leaders) don't have the abilities of Arafat - which weren't organization. They were symbols he managed to create, an aura of governance," he said. "There will be the striving of a new generation, but it will take time until they get into their own."

As for the future of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, much could depend on U.S. involvement. American presidents historically have more success brokering peace deals in their second terms, and the newly re-elected President Bush is looking to continue that trend.

Arafat's death has been called the end of an era, and the void he leaves could, if used properly, open some doors for negotiations between the countries, experts say.

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"The problem is we all know where the light is. We don't know where the tunnel is," Mendilow said. "I am not terribly optimistic concerning the possibility of seizing the moment. It is late by four years, and I don't see any reason why suddenly (the United States) will wake up."

When President Clinton's peace negotiations at the end of his last term fell through, the two sides, which had come close to an agreement, fell apart.

The move was "perhaps (Arafat's) biggest mistake," Reuveny said.

"(The two sides) were very, very close to each other. Had he come forward at that opportunity to say 'I accept it' ... maybe the results of the Israeli elections would have been different, and the Israeli Prime Minister (Ehud) Barak would have been able to get re-elected," Reuveny said.

"Perhaps he made a tactical mistake at that point. Israel never came forward formally, either."

Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.

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