Polls are prevalent in election coverage in part because they have proven accurate historically but this year the unique dynamics of each party's race have challenged pollsters' ability to make on-target predictions.
In the 2008 presidential election Republican polls have produced reliable results but Democratic projections have been inconsistent.
Nine major pre-election polls anticipated Barack Obama winning in the New Hampshire primary said Nancy Mathiowetz president for the American Association for Public Opinion Resources. Yet on the day of the primary" Hillary Clinton won the state.
""Clearly something is happening on the Democratic side"" she said.
She added that pre-election polls in South Carolina also anticipated Obama winning but not by a significant margin. Obama won a much higher vote percentage than many polls had predicted.
In response to Democratic polling inaccuracies, Mathiowetz's association created a new committee to analyze hypotheses about what might have caused the incorrect predictions.
She stated in an e-mail that the committee is looking at several possible explanations, including what is known as the Bradley Effect.""
""That is where white respondents express higher support for a black candidate than how they actually vote in the election"" Mathiowetz said, explaining that voters do this to avoid appearing prejudiced.
Fritz Wenzel, director of communication at Zogby International, an international public opinion organization, said there are several factors that could have swayed the New Hampshire and South Carolina election results.
Obama was in the lead the day before the New Hampshire primaries. That same day, Clinton teared up in a cafe while being interviewed, a move that Wenzel said could have helped turn the tides.
Immediately following Clinton's emotional speech, Wenzel said, the polls indicated that Clinton was not far behind Obama.
In New Hampshire" 18 percent of voters made up their minds on election day itself he said. By 9 p.m. the night before" we were still unable to capture the Clinton wave.""
UNC journalism professor Philip Meyer said another explanation for the unpredictable results is that Democrats are more cross-pressured because they believe they have to either support a black candidate or a female candidate. Although some Democrats are unsure of whom they support" he said they feel that they have to give an answer.
Meyer said Republican candidates tend to fall along an ideological spectrum which enables voters to easily pick a candidate who aligns with their views based on where they themselves fall on that spectrum.
On the other hand he said it can be more difficult for Democratic voters to pick a candidate because they tend to strongly like and dislike qualities within each candidate rather than simply assessing where each candidate falls on a spectrum.
John Zogby president and founder of Zogby International stated in a press release that exit polls after Super Tuesday indicate a fairly solid lead for Republican candidate John McCain.
Those same exit polls for Democratic voters foreshadow a serious competition between Obama and Clinton" he said.
""These conflicts represent serious rifts in the Democratic Party" and the longer it takes to heal those rifts the greater the advantage for McCain and the Republicans he said.
Meyer said polls are becoming less accurate as technology increases because pollsters can no longer guarantee that all sectors of a population are accurately included in the sample.
The principle is simple: Each member of the population must have an equal chance to be represented in the poll" he said.
Before, Meyer said, pollsters could more easily target certain households in order to make sure that the sample included all the diverse sectors of the population.
Now, he said, factors like multiple phones, call waiting and a reluctance to talk to pollsters on the phone is limiting the ability of a poll to reach all necessary households.
Meyer said that although polls might not be as accurate as intended, they are a necessary component of the election season.
Polls keep people interested in the election"" He said. A basketball game would be boring without a scoreboard.""
Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.
