Senate battle surprises

When the U.S. Senate race began it seemed unlikely that Democrats could produce a viable challenger for incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole R-N.C.

However N.C. Sen. Kay Hagan D-Guilford virtually unknown when she announced her candidacy" has proven to be a legitimate opponent.

""I saw her on TV the other day" and I was blown away by the kind of transformation of the Kay Hagan I ran against in the primary and the Kay Hagan that has run against Dole" said Chapel Hill businessman Jim Neal, who ran against Hagan in the Democratic primary.

According to a Nov. 3 poll by Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling, Hagan is leading Dole 51 percent to 44 percent.

In June, Hagan trailed by 5 percentage points, and in February, by 17, according to polls by the same organization.

It is usually difficult to win against incumbents unless they have strong personal negatives, but disapproval of the Bush administration and Washington politics have hurt Dole's chances.

However, a key aspect of Hagan's strong challenge is the support from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which provides money to elect Democratic senators.

The biggest aspect of this race has been the tremendous amount of money the DSCC has put in North Carolina against Dole to reinforce the concept that she hasn't been taking care of the state very well"" said UNC journalism professor Leroy Towns.

The committee spent several million dollars on television ads, which began in September.

A basic rule in politics is that if you allow a heavy ad body on TV to go unanswered" it does considerable damage to your campaign. I believe that's what happened in this case" Towns said.

The first DSCC ad was the best and most effective in the nation, Towns said.

The ad featured two elderly men on a porch, criticizing Dole's effectiveness as senator and record of voting with the Bush administration.

Early on it seemed unlikely that the N.C. Democratic Party could provide a challenger — most thought of Dole as invincible, Neal said.

Mainstream prominent Democrats declined to run — Gov. Mike Easley was rumored to be one — and in the beginning, Neal was the only candidate, Towns said.

Neal, the first openly gay candidate for statewide office, made the Democratic Party nervous, Towns speculated. Once Hagan announced her candidacy, the Democratic Party establishment threw its support behind her.

Since then, Hagan has gathered significant support by portraying herself as more attuned to the needs of the state.

She's going to come back to North Carolina and spend time with people. Folks want to know the people representing them"" said Colleen Flanagan, a Hagan campaign spokeswoman.

North Carolina is looking for change, she said.

She's going to tell people" ‘You're right" we're going in the wrong direction. Here are my ideas to turn it around.'""

Dole has spent most of her campaign reminding voters of her senatorial accomplishments and her national legislative record.

""She's going to remind people of what she has been able to do. She's had clout and effectiveness from day one to go over there and fight for North Carolina"" said Hogan Gidley, spokesman for the Dole campaign. She's been able to accomplish more in her first term than most have.""

Dole has highlighted her opposition to the Bush administration's immigration plan and cuts in Medicaid benefits" her role in keeping military bases open in the state and support for the state's tobacco industry" Gidley said.

""People know her. People like her"" Gidley said.

Most of Dole's political career has been based in Washington. She first served in the Nixon administration in the 1960s and later assumed Cabinet positions in the Reagan and H.W. Bush administrations. She also was president of the American Red Cross.

Dole sought the Republican presidential nomination in 1999 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002.

In contrast, Hagan has been in politics since 1998, when she was first elected to the N.C. Senate. She served for five years as a chairwoman of the committee that handles the state budget, beginning in 2003.

John Hood, president and chairman of the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank based in Raleigh, said Dole's problem could be summed up with two names: President Bush and Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman and a New York senator.

Bush is a drag on all the Republican candidates"" Hood said.

And Schumer singled out Dole early on because she appeared to be a vulnerable Republican in a swing state, Hood said.

Towns said the Dole campaign has since found some money of its own in the last few weeks, but negative ads might be too late.

In one of those last-minute ads, which began running at the end of October, Dole accuses Hagan of taking campaign contributions from a PAC called Godless Americans.""

The ad may have backfired — it drew considerable condemnation from many of the state's newspapers and the public.

""The ad is misleading in that it tries to make a voice at the end of it seem like Kay Hagan's. It has the potential to be a detriment to Elizabeth Dole"" Towns said. The point could have been made very differently.""

The Hagan campaign has managed to come from far behind in only a few months"" but earlier projections could swing either way based on voter turnout today.

""Erskine Bowles (Dole's 2002 opponent) said you can't beat her because she's Florence Nightingale" Neal said.

Well the wind has blown Florence Nightingale's cap off. She can't run from her record" and Kay has exploited that extremely well.""



Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.