Game theory of finding a Valentine

February is winter’s worst phase: just when we’ve survived January’s bitterness, along comes a colder month with no holidays to cheer us up. Indeed, February’s salient holiday, Valentine’s Day, tends to inspire more aggregate self-pitying than kisses.

Instead of celebrating Valentine’s Day as we’re meant to — with stammering dates, overpriced dinners and a town-wide cologne glut — many swinging Carolina singles are found alone, swigging cake-flavored Burnett’s and bemoaning the 60-40 gender skew.

It’s clear that at least some Valentine’s-dateless students would prefer dating to drinking on Feb. 14, so why does the realized amount of V-Day dates remain low? I will pose an answer in this, the first of two columns about love economics.

Economic game theory explains why fewer V-Day dates occur than would maximize Tar Heels’ happiness. Though many pairs of students would be happy to date each other, they do not. That’s because dating somebody involves a romance-killing Dater’s Dilemma.

To understand the Dater’s Dilemma, let’s examine a grim fairy tale of two starry-eyed Carolina students: Sally Tarheel and Harry Oldwell (of course, the Dater’s Dilemma applies equally to non-heterosexual, non-WASPy couples). Sally thinks Harry is real cute.

Harry and Sally have an 8 a.m. CHEM 101 class together, and they have shared a few laughs about their professor’s toupee and classmates’ stupidity. Sally sometimes wonders whether Harry likes her as “more than a friend,” and Harry thinks Sally is a real swell gal.

Valentine’s Day approaches, and it’s clear to onlookers that Sally and Harry would make the cutest couple since Kimye. Yet V-Day comes and goes without so much as a Hershey’s Kiss.

What happened? Here’s the simple sad truth: both Sally and Harry had a dominant strategy to not ask the other on a date, although they would both be happier when dating. A dominant strategy, in game theory, is an action you will pursue no matter what others do.

In order to make sense of this Dater’s Dilemma and avoid Sally and Harry’s fate, let’s examine the potential actions that Sally and Harry could have taken.

Scenario One: Sally could have asked Harry on a date or vice versa, and the other party could have said no. This outcome seems the worst, because getting rejected would involve embarrassment for both asker and denier. Sally and Harry avoid this scenario like head lice.

Scenario Two: Sally and Harry could not ask each other on a date. While this scenario would leave both students dateless like Scenario One, at least it would avoid the unpleasant embarrassment of romantic rejection. Sally and Harry seem to prefer this option to denial.

Scenario Three: Sally or Harry asks the other on a date, and the other says yes. Clearly this would be the best outcome for the pair’s happiness, yet it does not occur. Lacking information and trust about whether their affection is shared, neither takes the risk to ask.

Avoid the V-Day Dater’s Dilemma: Get over your fear of rejection and take a chance.