Poll shows NC Democrats have lost advantage

Reinforcing North Carolina’s identity as a political swing state, the number of state voters identifying as Democrats has dropped from 49 percent in 2008 to 42 percent in 2014.

That solidifies the state’s reputation as a swing state that could be just as easily swayed by Republicans, who hold 41 percent of the state’s voting population, according to an Aug. 27 poll released by Gallup.

The poll illustrates the tight race for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat, where incumbent Kay Hagan faces a tough re-election bid against N.C. Speaker of the House Thom Tillis.

In 2008, 49 percent of North Carolinians identified as Democrats, while 39 percent identified as Republicans.

Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science at Catawba College, said in an email that there is more to the poll than Democrats losing their position as most favored in North Carolina.

“What Gallup doesn’t explain is that prior to 2008, North Carolina was considered very Republican at the presidential level, with George W. Bush winning the Tar Heel state by 12 percentage points in 2000 and 2004,” Bitzer said.

Bitzer added that while President Obama did win the state in 2008, he won by a 0.4 percent margin, which could be attributed to an “anti-Bush” reaction.

Ferrel Guillory, a UNC journalism professor and director of UNC’s Program on Public Life, said that much of the 2008 Democratic lead was caused by the presidential election and Obama’s presence in the race — North Carolina itself is still a swing state.

“The underlying reality is that this state is neither majority Republican nor majority Democratic,” Guillory said. “We have a lot of independent voters ... so it’s a very competitive and closely contested state.”

Bitzer said the important part of a poll’s results is what candidates do with the information: getting base supporters to vote or focusing on independents who may not vote at all.

The state Republican and Democratic parties did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

The Gallup poll also revealed that among North Carolinians, job approval for Obama, confidence in their state legislature and confidence in their economy trailed the national average.

Guillory said general public disapproval of the state legislature will aid Hagan against Tillis, but he said Congress also continues to have low approval ratings, which Tillis will be able to use against Hagan.

“Hagan wants this campaign to be about North Carolina, about discontent with the legislature (and) the large shift in action the Republicans enacted in the legislature,” Guillory said. “Tillis wants to focus on deadlock in Washington and discontent with Obama.”

Bitzer agreed that the focus on unaffiliated voters would drag both candidates’ jobs records into the debate.

“Who are those independent voters more likely to be mad at: Washington or Raleigh?”

state@dailytarheel.com