Howlett's take on Virginia: The game plan

They took the field 53 weeks ago in Raleigh, not knowing where their season would go, whether it would crater, once more, on the road against an ACC foe, or achieve some earnest uplift.

The Tar Heels had quashed a five-game losing streak one week before in Chapel Hill against Boston College, but of only this did North Carolina’s football team remain certain: Its game Nov. 2 against N.C. State would decide whether a 2-5 club could cobble together a season-saving run.

It did. A 27-19 win in Raleigh and four wins in their next five games catapulted the Tar Heels to a Belk Bowl appearance.

Now, after the best-laid plans have gone awry, after a preseason top-25 ranking has given way to four straight defeats and a 2-4 start, and after a thrilling, last-minute victory at Kenan Stadium last week against Georgia Tech, UNC remains certain of something more.

If the postseason is to remain within their grasp, then 2014 must become 2013’s doppelganger. And fast.

It begins Saturday in Charlottesville when UNC (3-4, 1-2 ACC) visits Virginia (4-3, 2-1 ACC), when the Tar Heels, their middling start notwithstanding, can pull within earshot of the undistinguished Coastal Division’s leaders with a win.

How can they do it? Here are three keys to a successful Saturday afternoon for UNC:

1. Follow the 2013 script

• In its seventh regular-season game of 2013, UNC played an ACC opponent (B.C.) at home after dropping five straight games. The Tar Heels won, then took their resurgent act on the road the next week to play an ACC rival (The Wolfpack) and topped N.C. State.
• In its seventh regular-season game of 2014, UNC played an ACC opponent (Ga. Tech) at home after dropping four straight games. The Tar Heels won. They play on the road Saturday against another conference rival (UVa.). All that remains, then, is a sequel: another win to level UNC’s record at 4-4 and keep the Tar Heels’ dim postseason hopes alight.
• “It was huge. Absolutely huge,” linebacker Jeff Schoettmer said after UNC’s win against Ga. Tech. “I think it’s the turning point to our season, really.” Saturday will decide whether 2013 was a template for a turnaround or a mere mirage for a different team in a different season.

2. More-quise, please

• “He’s balled the last couple of weeks,” wide receiver Ryan Switzer said of his team’s starting quarterback. And has he ever.
• Marquise Williams engineered UNC’s game-winning 75-yard drive Saturday night. He set a school record for completions (38), threw for 390 yards and ran for 73 yards more, tossed four touchdowns and scampered for another.
• He’s the two-time reigning ACC Offensive Back of the Week, warranted for the 898 yards Williams has generated in the last two weeks. He has even crept into the domain of the defending Heisman Trophy winner: Williams ranks second among all ACC players in total offense per game (317.7 yards per game) behind only Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston (320.8).
• The plan, then, appears simple: Place the ball in Williams’ hands, for good things shall happen.
• “Marquise obviously is playing out of his mind right now,” Schoettmer said Monday.

3. Running down a nightmare

• Opposing backfields have wielded pitchforks and torches while pillaging UNC’s beleaguered run defense in 2014: UNC ranks 109th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 217.6 rushing yards allowed per game. It far exceeded its weekly allowance against Ga. Tech, ceding 375 yards and the go-ahead 75-yard reverse with 3:07 left in regulation. Its performance prompted, in no small part, some pause for coach Larry Fedora after the thrill of last week’s win subsided.
• “I’ve got a lot of things to worry about,” Fedora said Saturday night, hinting not so subtly at his team’s holey-not-holy run prevention.
• The task this week appears no less formidable. The Cavaliers, defying the loss of three starting linemen from 2013, have averaged 202.3 rushing yards in their last four games and allow the fifth-fewest sacks in the nation. UNC will call upon a pair of standouts from a week ago to stanch UVa.’s rush attack: sophomore defensive end Junior Gnonkonde, who, arguably, authored his best game as a Tar Heel against Ga. Tech with seven tackles and a sack, and Dajuan Drennon, a redshirt freshman defensive end who added five tackles and a sack of his own against the Yellow Jackets.

Can UNC follow the script from 53 weeks ago? With a still-hot Williams and a tighter defense, sure. But the Tar Heels don’t know, again, where their season will go Saturday — only that its result will render a win from seven days prior a blip in a season-long dip or a boost to something more.

sports@dailytarheel.com