NC representation could expand in US House

Piecing together new congressional districts in 2020 will be a puzzle for legislators as North Carolina prepares to add a new district, according to a report released Nov. 3 by the Carolina Population Center.

To predict the reapportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2020, the report examined population data, including estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. North Carolina is one of four Southern states — along with Florida, Texas and Virginia — the report predicted would gain additional seats.

Rebecca Tippett, director of Carolina Demography at the Carolina Population Center, said urban counties would see increased representation in the 2020 redistricting.

“The big factor is going to be that we’re seeing market declines across rural North Carolina in terms of population, with increasing consolidation of the center of the population in the state’s urban cores, which means that we’re going to see big gains in those areas in terms of representation after the 2020 census,” she said.

Currently, Republicans control 10 of the Congressional seats while Democrats hold the other three. Because states are constitutionally required to draw districts of the same size, they would have to redraw every district.

Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College, said the party in control of the state legislature will control how and where this 14th district will be drawn.

Assuming Republicans still control the state legislature in 2020, he said they will either create a new, Democratic minority district or dilute Democratic presence in urban areas by redrawing districts to include suburban and rural areas.

“Counties like Wake, counties like Mecklenburg are fast-growing counties and have the bulk of the population,” Bitzer said. “Republicans will have to decide: Do we want to give up this extra seat but still control things for the rest of the state?”

Because the Republican Party in the U.S. House is largely based in the South, Bitzer said if Southern states pick up more seats in 2020, districts throughout the South could be redrawn to maintain a majority.

With only 435 seats in the House, Tippet said representation will naturally adjust from the Northeast and Midwest to other regions.

North Carolina boasts the ninth-largest state population, according to the N.C. Office of State Budget and Management. Net migration is the main factor in North Carolina’s population growth, Tippett said. A majority of those moving to the state are relocating from other states for job or retirement opportunities, she said.

But Geoffrey Skelley, spokesperson for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said in an email that international immigrants play an important role.

“Immigrants today principally come from Latin America and Asia, whereas in the distant past, they mainly came from Europe,” Skelley said. “Thus, immigrants now are likely to arrive in the South or West as their point of entry, while past immigrants were more likely to arrive in in the Northeast.”

North Carolina will also increase its electoral votes from 15 to 16, enlarging its role in the presidential election.

“If North Carolina is going to be a battleground state at the presidential level, 16 electoral votes is a pretty good number to have,” Bitzer said.

state@dailytarheel.com