I don’t know about you, but if you ask me, instigating a war with Iran is a really, really bad idea.
I say this because there is a disturbing number of powerful people who seem to disagree with me, and think it’s actually a good idea. Prominent neoconservatives, as well as war hawks in both the Republican and Democratic parties, are champing at the bit for the United States to escalate into an all-out conflict with Iran, and with President Donald Trump as our current Commander-in-Chief, escalation does not seem unlikely.
One of Trump’s more provocative actions toward Iran has been refusing to certify the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. While not outright getting rid of it entirely, undermining a comprehensive deal that establishes anti-nuclear proliferation measures, ensures international monitoring of the Iranian nuclear program and represents as breakthrough in U.S.-Iranian diplomatic relations does not bode well.
It’s been argued that the U.S. should abandon the deal because Iran isn’t holding up its end of the bargain, even though the U.S. State Department, International Atomic Energy Agency, European Union, Russia and China all confirm that Iran is complying with the plan.
But the opposition to the plan by American war hawks, as well as by the Israeli and Saudi governments, isn’t about any substantive opposition to the details of the plan. Rather, they don’t want any dialogue with Iran at all.
If the United States does end up in a quixotic war against Iran, it shouldn’t expect support from key allies such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom, all of whom having been strong supporters of the Iran deal. These countries have made it clear they would not follow America into battle.
The only other nations that have expressed interest in military operations against Iran have been, of course, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The latter of which are infamous for the incompetence of their armed forces, and they’re primarily interested in using the United States to take out one of their primary rivals in the region.
It should also be noted that we’ve actually tested how a war with Iran would go, and the results were not pretty.
Back in 2002, the United States Armed Forces engaged in a war game exercise between “Blue” and “Red” combatants, representing a fleet from the United States' Navy (Blue) versus Iranian speedboats (Red). When Red chose to engage in asymmetric warfare, they were easily able to decimate Blue’s armada.
