Jack's prediction
Duke is as big a title contender as anyone. But North Carolina is ready to shoot its shot after a solid, confidence-building win leading into the matchup.
In the final game leading up to the rivalry matchup, UNC shot the ball exceedingly well against Wake Forest. The Tar Heels — led by Cameron Johnson, who made a career-high seven 3-pointers in Winston-Salem — beat the Demon Deacons by a margin of 38, due in part to Johnson's impressive performance from deep.
The win was the kind of game UNC needed leading into a contest against the Blue Devils. It’s also the kind of performance the home team should fear welcoming in its rival into Cameron Indoor Stadium on Wednesday.
Up to the N.C. State game on Saturday, Duke had given up an average of 7.5 made threes per game — while UNC has averaged 9.1 made threes per game. Something has to give, and in a big game, it’s going to be the Duke defense.
UNC won’t be as physical as Duke. If it tries to be, the team will lose in embarrassing fashion. Zion Williamson alone is way bigger than any starter the Tar Heels could put in the game to try and balance him out. But when Coby White and Johnson get going, the game will be much closer than anyone could have predicted. Well, except me.
No matter how well the Tar Heels and Blue Devils have been playing, the rivalry games are almost always close. This one will be too, but the momentum will swing in favor of UNC in the end.
Last season, the two schools swapped game plans with Duke having more size and UNC having more speed. That could very well be the way things shape up this year too.
If and when the Tar Heels shoot the ball well, they will shift the balance and beat the Blue Devils — even if not by much at all.
Score: UNC 96, Duke 94
To get the day's news and headlines in your inbox each morning, sign up for our email newsletters.
Chris' prediction
Last season, North Carolina and Duke faced off three times, including a matchup in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Tar Heels got the best of the Blue Devils two times, including the game on March 9, which they won by five points. This season, Duke returns zero starters from that team. But led by four first-year starters, Duke boasts one of the most high-powered offenses in the nation. R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson rank first and second in the ACC in points per game, respectively, and should create matchup nightmares for Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson, or any other Tar Heel assigned to guard them. I expect Williamson and Barrett to each drop at least 20 points on their defenders.
Cam Reddish and Tre Jones make up the other two first-year starters. Reddish is the third and final Blue Devil averaging double figures in scoring and Jones is perhaps the best defender in the ACC. I expect Jones, who is the younger brother of Tyus Jones, to give fellow first-year Coby White trouble when White is on offense and create turnovers against UNC’s No. 2 scorer.
I think the only way UNC will win in this hostile atmosphere is if the team can shoot from deep with the same efficiency it did against Wake Forest on Saturday (16-25 on 3-point shots). I think North Carolina will shoot well from the field and from deep in the first half and possibly go into the intermission with a lead. However, Duke always comes out hot in the second half against the Tar Heels and I expect that trend to continue on Wednesday. The Blue Devils will make their shots late as part of a second-half run and UNC will be unable to counter in the hostile environment.
Score: Duke 86, UNC 79
Ryan's Prediction
In my article outlining the weaknesses for this North Carolina team, I mentioned the problem that is Zion Williamson. The first-year forward who is the likely No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft is, in a word, overwhelming. He’s too much of everything all at once: too big, too strong, too quick, too explosive.
UNC is a lot of things, too, but one thing it isn't is versatile on the defensive end. I predict that lack of versatility will hurt the Tar Heels, who will get overwhelmed by Williamson and lose the rivalry’s first iteration of the season in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils are much like an NBA team – not just in their level of talent, but in their ability to pinpoint an opponent’s weakness and exploit it until the cows come home. With the right players on the court – sharpshooters Cam Reddish and Alex O’Connell, for example – Duke has the ability to spread the floor a la the NBA’s Houston Rockets, allowing Williamson or fellow projected lottery pick R.J. Barrett to feast on defenders one-on-one. And if that happens, North Carolina simply doesn’t have the athletes to keep up.
I mentioned first-year Nassir Little as a possible Zion-stopper, but the truth is that guarding great players is never a one-man job. Even ignoring the fact that Little might not be at one hundred percent, limited by an ankle injury sustained last Monday against Virginia, he can’t lock down on Williamson for an entire game, and Duke can use screens and switches to get the matchup it wants. Switch to a zone, and Duke will put Williamson at the elbow, allowing him to pick the defense apart with the pass.
Make no mistake, Duke isn’t unbeatable; they have flaws like any team. But when considering the sheer amount of talent at Coach K’s disposal, that word again comes to mind: overwhelming. Too big, too strong, too fast, too talented – and, in this case, too comfortable at home – to overcome.
Score: Duke 91, UNC 78
@DTHSports
sports@dailytarheel.com
