For the past several days, the 2020 Republican National Convention has (sort of) been taking place in Charlotte. President Donald Trump, the party's nominee for president, and Vice President Mike Pence addressed their fellow Republicans, as did other party leaders like South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Eight years ago, some very different voices occupied the center stage in the Queen City. Democrats from across the country gathered in Uptown to renominate then-President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden to their party’s ticket.
In addition to holding their party conventions here, both Democrats and Republicans have dedicated an inordinate amount of time and resources to the Old North State. The 2014 Senate election between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis made headlines as it became the most expensive Senate race in history. Despite winning the state by just over three points in 2016, the Trump campaign's advertising expenditures in North Carolina are second only to Florida.
So, why is North Carolina so sought after on a national scale? What sets us apart from our neighbors like South Carolina and Tennessee?
Prior to 2008, Republicans could rely on a victorious result in presidential elections in North Carolina. However, cracks in this ruby red reputation began to appear in 2008 when Barack Obama beat Republican opponent John McCain by less than a single percentage point. Compare this to 2004, when then-President George W. Bush beat then-Sen. John Kerry by 12 points.
Since then, party identification has been roughly equal in North Carolina between Republican, Democratic, and unaffiliated voters. According to a recent report from Carolina Demography, 36 percent of North Carolinian voters are registered Democrats, 33 percent are unaffiliated and 30 percent are Republicans. In a 2019 interview with PBS, Republican strategist Carter Wrenn said, “that demographic just makes us sort of your classic swing state.”
While North Carolina’s electoral votes haven’t swung blue since 2008, recent state-level victories have given the Democrats some hope in retaking the state in 2020. In 2016, then-N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper defeated incumbent Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in that year’s gubernatorial race, and in 2018, Democrats were able to break Republican supermajorities in the state legislature.
Another contributing factor to the Democrats’ hope (and the Republicans’ dismay) is the changing demographic face of North Carolina. The number of Hispanic North Carolinians has exploded, with the state seeing a 25 percent increase in registered Hispanic voters since 2016. Hispanic and Latinx voters, who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, now make up three percent of the state’s voting population, a number that can decide elections where races have recently been won by slim margins.
Once a stone-strong beacon of conservatism, North Carolina is now delicately balanced between Democrats and Republicans. With tremendous amounts of ad spending, voter registration drives and lavish party conventions, each seeks to pull the Old North State to their side.
