Barring something short of a miracle or a prime Charlie Justice walking through the tunnel of the next practice, North Carolina will almost certainly lose the Orange Bowl on Saturday. Let's get that out of the way.
Facing up against No. 5 Texas A&M, a much more talented team on paper that only just missed out on the College Football Playoff, the Tar Heels will enter the match against one of the best defensive teams in the country without three of their most important offensive players.
Defense
By the end of Wednesday's bowl games, the Aggies had the second-best run defense in the country this season, limiting teams to just 92.2 yards per game on the ground. The defense is built on the best defensive line UNC will see all season, headed up by Bobby Brown III, who was named first team All-SEC and led the team in tackles for loss with 7.5, and DeMarvin Leal, who had six tackles for loss and eight QB hurries this season.
While North Carolina had a top-10 rushing offense this past year, it will face Texas A&M without its two top backs, Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, who both opted out of the game in preparation for the 2021 NFL Draft. The two combined for an average of 216.8 yards per game, making up 87 percent of the Tar Heels' average rushing yards per game.
In their most recent game against Tennessee, the Aggies allowed just 24 total rushing yards on 17 attempts against a Vols team that averages a respectable 141.5 per game. Offense hasn't been a problem for North Carolina at any point this season, but so much of what the Tar Heels do starts with Carter and Williams establishing the run to open up the field for receivers. It will take a career game from whoever UNC chooses to replace its dual backs in the Orange Bowl, just to stay competitive.
Texas A&M was also a top-25 team in third down conversion defense at 35.2 percent on the season. Along with the defensive line, the Aggies have an impressive group of linebackers that features Buddy Johnson, who led the team in total tackles with 76, and Aaron Hansford, who was second on the team in tackles for loss with seven.
Offense
While the Aggies are ranked No. 5 in the country because of their defense, their offense was in the top 50 this season. And unlike the Tar Heels, theirs will be at full strength come Saturday.
