Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools experienced a 7.43 percent decline of the average number of students enrolled in its schools from the beginning of the 2019-20 school year to the end of 2022-23 — a decrease likely driven by demographic changes in the Chapel Hill and Carrboro communities and growing involvement in private schools.
CHCCS has maintained its position as the 30th-largest school district out of the state's 115 districts for the past several years, but had over 900 fewer students at the end of last school year than it did in 2019.
While Orange County's population grew by nearly 17,000 from 2010 to 2022, much of the growth occurred in those aged 65 and older. The share of Orange County's population older than 65 increased from just under 10 percent in 2011 to more than 14 percent in 2021.
Chapel’s Hill demographic change is a phenomenon counties all across North Carolina are seeing — the state population of people over 65 increased by 44 percent, while the under-18 population grew by less than 1 percent.
Theodore Nollert, a Chapel Hill Town Council member, said the decline could be related to the cost of housing and availability of jobs in the area.
“People who are coming tend to be older and to not have school-aged kids,” Nollert said.
Nollert said these older populations tend to be wealthier than the average young family, and that the lack of affordable housing can cause displacement among young families. Both the displacement and the decline in student enrollment is subsequently seen mostly among marginalized communities, he said.
Barbara Fedders, a member of the CHCCS Board of Education, said the populations of these marginalized communities have been declining over the past several years, which impacts student enrollment.
“In general, over the years, the Black population in Chapel Hill and Carrboro has gotten proportionally smaller because of gentrification,” Fedders said.
