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Preview: UNC to face high-flying Alabama offense in Sweet 16 showdown

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UNC first-year guard Elliot Cadeau (2) prepares to pass the ball during the NCAA tournament first round game against Wagner on Thursday, March 21, 2024 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. UNC beat Wagner 90-62.

There’s fast, there’s faster. And then, there’s Alabama.

The No. 4-seeded Crimson Tide will face No. 1-seeded North Carolina at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Thursday night for a Sweet 16 showdown. Led by senior guard Mark Sears, Alabama boasts the country’s highest scoring offense, pouring in 90.7 points per game.

We’re about to find out, in basketball terms, what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. UNC’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks sixth nationally, per KenPom. The Crimson Tide plays at a lightning-quick pace, ranked eighth in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. 

Here are two things to watch for as UNC looks to advance to the Elite Eight for the second time in three years:

Live and die by the three

Alabama prides itself on its NBA-style, efficiency-favoring philosophy: threes, layups and no defense. 

Head coach Nate Oats’ crew has given up 85 or more points 11 times this season. Nearly half of the Crimson Tide’s field goal attempts have been 3-pointers and four of Alabama’s five starters have attempted at least 140 triples. The Tide rank top-5 in Division I in 3-point attempts and makes per game

Adhering to offensive analytics isn't perfect, though. In five of its nine ranked matchups this season, the Crimson Tide shot 25 percent or worse from distance. Meanwhile, North Carolina has capable shooters, but usually prefers to work inside out.

However, that might not be an option if Alabama gets hot from distance. Junior forward Harrison Ingram and graduate guard Cormac Ryan are UNC’s X-factors here: when both are hitting shots, the Tar Heels are nearly impossible to beat. But when neither are connecting on triples, senior guard RJ Davis can only do so much while often being face-guarded.

There have been eight games this season in which both Ingram and Ryan shot 37 percent or better from three. UNC won seven of those. Conversely, Ingram and Ryan combined to shoot 30 percent or less from downtown in four of North Carolina’s seven losses.

Can Elliot Cadeau get going?

The rookie guard had more turnovers (four) than points (zero) in UNC’s NCAA tournament opener against Wagner. He followed it up with six points and four assists against Michigan State, but shot 0-for-4 from three while Tom Izzo’s Spartans sagged off Cadeau, daring him to take wide open looks.

Cadeau is a pass-first point guard, but he is now 8-for-48 from downtown on the season. If the ACC All-Freshman Team selectee continues to be a liability on the perimeter, Oats will undoubtedly elect to double-team graduate center Armando Bacot in the post and clog UNC's driving lanes.

Though Cadeau has started 30 games this year, head coach Hubert Davis isn’t opposed to trading offense for defense by giving sixth man Seth Trimble more minutes in the first-year's place.

But if Thursday comes down to a shootout, the Crimson Tide’s permeable defense — ranked worst of all the Sweet 16 teams at 101st in KenPom — might just be the thing Cadeau needs for a breakout game.

@danielhwei

@dthsports | sports@dailytarheel.com

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Daniel Wei

Daniel Wei is a 2023-24 assistant sports editor at The Daily Tar Heel. He has previously served as a senior writer. Daniel is a junior pursuing a double major in business administration and economics.