A look back on 2024 N.C. political campaigns

Steven Greene knew the North Carolina governor’s race was over when the CNN report on Republican nominee Mark Robinson came out, less than two months before election day. 

A political science professor at North Carolina State University, Greene said once the report came out, the question wasn’t if Robinson would lose, but rather how much his loss would drag down other Republican candidates down the ballot. 

The North Carolina Democratic Party knew it too. Theodore Nollert, the campus mobilization director for the North Carolina Democratic Party and Chapel Hill Town Council member, said much of their campaigning for the rest of the cycle highlighted the normalcy of their candidates. 

“I think the most effective message in North Carolina was, 'Look, that Mark Robinson guy is crazy. Let's vote for the moral candidate in this election, the competent, qualified guy who is likable and clearly normal and a good person,'” Nollert said. 

However, looking at post-election results, Greene said he thought Democrats’ success in more publicized races such as lieutenant governor, governor and attorney general could not be attributed to Robinson’s scandals. Instead, they revolved around the overall “likability” of those candidates, he said. 

“One of my overall things of this election is, yeah, everything's partisanship, but candidates still matter,” Greene said. “Mark Robinson was an awful one. And I think if you look at the attorney general's race, I think Jeff Jackson was a particularly good one.”

In fact, many of the smaller down ballot races followed party lines, with similar results to the national election, Greene said. Long-time incumbents like Agricultural Commissioner Steve Troxler maintained wide leads. 

N.C. Rep. Bill Ward (R-Camden, Gates, Hertford, Pasquotank) said in an email that circumstances outside of campaigns affected the higher-profile races. 

“Many issues were present that precluded the election of a Republican governor, lieutenant governor and other positions,” Ward said. “ I think that there was a large influence on the elections of those positions by biased media and messaging.”

In races where Republicans won, including the presidential election, Ward said appealing to issues like the economy and immigration helped drive more votes. The strongest part of the Republican campaign was appealing to issues that affect voters in their daily lives, he said. 

For Nollert, campaigning efforts were mainly informational, and focused on educating college students on how and where to vote. He said he viewed that strategy as successful, with early voting for people ages 18 to 23 in college campus areas up 23 percent from 2020.

However, where Democrats fell short was in actually demonstrating their value and what change they could cause through everyday actions, he said. In the future, Nollert said he hopes strategies will go past the “Get Out the Vote” operation, especially in between election years. 

“We need to be a party where people associate us with constituent services and with community benefits, where they say you can count on Democrats to put money in your pocket, food on your table, get you a job, make sure that your health care gets taken care of,” Nollert said. 

As a whole, North Carolina’s election results reinforced its status as a swing state, and will make it even more competitive in the future, Greene said.

"Swing states, on average, shifted three points away from Democrats," Greene said. "North Carolina shifted less than two points away from Democrats. So North Carolina is closer than ever to whatever the political center of the United States is, and that means in four years, we're going to be as contested as far as anybody for the presidency."

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