Snubs, sneaks and historic moments: 2025 Oscar predictions

Last Thursday, the nominations for the 97th annual Academy Awards were announced, with "Emilia Pérez," "The Brutalist" and "Wicked" being the most nominated films of the bunch.

"Emilia Pérez," directed by Jacques Audiard, topped the nomination count with 13, the same amount as last year's best picture winner "Oppenheimer," and classics like "Forrest Gump," "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring" and "Gone with the Wind."

I, like many, have a love-hate relationship with the Oscars. On the one hand, Lily Gladstone losing the Lead Actress Oscar last year to Emma Stone made me mad for a week. On the other, I remember exactly where I was (and how loud I screamed) when Paul Mescal was nominated for my favorite movie, “Aftersun," in 2022. 

While I don't have that same connection with many of this year’s nominees, there are still plenty of snubs, sneaks and historic moments worth speaking about. Let's dive into my predictions for this year's Academy Awards. 

Disclaimer: I won’t be predicting any of the short films or documentaries as I haven’t been able to see them, or technical categories (set design, visual effects, etc.) 

Best International Feature: “Emilia Pérez," Jacques Audiard

Perhaps the simplest award of the night, "Emilia Pérez" will easily take this home, being one of only two films in this category also nominated for Best Picture (not to mention its 11 nominations aside from these two categories). 

Best Original Screenplay: “Anora," Sean Baker

After winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes this summer, “Anora” had a lot of buzz to make a splash at the Oscars. Baker missed out on nominations for "The Florida Project" and "Red Rocket" in years past, but he seems poised to win his first Academy Award here.

Biggest Snub: “Challengers," Justin Kuritzkes

Best Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave," Peter Straughan

Straughan's screenplay depicting the thrilling story of the election of the next pope took home the Best Screenplay award at the Golden Globes. With all of its closest competitors for that award residing in the Original Screenplay category, it’s all but a done deal to win.

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Despite scattered complaints of potential category fraud, Saldaña has won nearly every precursor award. This is likely the only major (Acting, Screenplay, Director) win of the night for “Emilia Pérez," but it's a surefire one. Sorry, Ariana Grande stans. 

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

The 2023 Emmys repeat themselves here, as Culkin and Jeremy Strong of HBO’s hit show “Succession” fight for another major award. Just as it happened then, I expect Culkin to win, with his only real threat being Guy Pearce from “The Brutalist."

Biggest Snub: Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing”

Best Director:  Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” 

In just his third feature film, Corbet’s three and a half hour American epic would be an inspired choice from a voting branch that doesn’t always go bold. 

Biggest Snub: Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Two”

Best Actress: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

This is probably my biggest long shot thus far, but the momentum for Torres and “I’m Still Here” is palpable (seriously, check any Academy Instagram comment section), and there is always one big surprise come Oscar night. The film was a surprise inclusion into the Best Picture lineup and is a big boost for Torres’s chances, and I’ll elect to go with my gut over the consensus pick of Demi Moore.

Best Actor: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

This has become a two-horse race between Brody and Timothée Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown." Ironically, Chalamet would be the youngest Lead Actor winner since Brody himself won it in 2003 for “The Pianist." However, after Brody’s Globes win and an overperformance for “The Brutalist” on Oscar nomination morning, I think Chalamet will go home empty-handed. 

Best Picture: “The Brutalist," Adrien Brody

The Best Picture winner is a lot less cut-and-dry than last year’s “Oppenheimer” sweep, but I do believe “The Brutalist” has the best package to win. Lead Actor and Director wins look likely, and it could absolutely pick up Original Screenplay and other technical wins as well (notably score and production design). Maybe this is just my heart picking against the "Emilia Pérez" victory I desperately don’t want to happen. Time will tell. 

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