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The Daily Tar Heel

Preview: Three keys for UNC to earn must-win game against Duke

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Photos courtesy of Olivia Paul, Connor Ruesch and Nate Skvoretz.

The UNC men's basketball team has had a rough season. The Tar Heels have eight losses, including seven Quad 1 losses and one to Quad 2 Stanford.

After coming into the pre-season ranked No. 9, they have underperformed. 

Now, North Carolina will face a seemingly invincible Duke squad on Saturday in Cameron Indoor Stadium.

With UNC teetering on the bubble ahead of the NCAA tournament, it's do or die. A win against Duke could turn the entire season around, but a loss could be disastrous.

Heading into the game, here are three keys before the rivalry matchup: 

Increase the pace

UNC plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, ranking within the top-20 in possessions per game. But in ACC play, the pace has slowed, giving the Tar Heels fewer opportunities to score. 

Against teams like Kansas and Florida, UNC scored 89 and 84 points, respectively. Against conference opponents, North Carolina is averaging 75 points per game. 

The Blue Devils boast a top-10 scoring defense. However, their pace of play ranks amongst the slowest in the nation.  The team routinely holds its opponents to season-lows. 

Pace could easily determine who comes out on top in Durham. A game with opportunities to get out in transition is likely to favor the Tar Heels, who rank in the top-25 in fast break points.

UNC must return to the speed it showed early in the season to obtain a resume-boosting win. 

Efficient play from first-year guard Ian Jackson

During conference play, North Carolina's wins are seemingly due to the contributions of first-year guard Ian Jackson. 

Jackson logged a seven-game stretch in December and January where he scored 18 or more points in every contest. UNC won six out of those seven games, including a win over a ranked UCLA squad — North Carolina's only Quad 1 victory.  

While the 6-foot-4 guard has proven himself as dynamic around the rim, his outside shooting has been key to the recent Tar Heel wins. If North Carolina wants to have a chance at leaving Durham with a win, Jackson is going to need to have a big game. 

From baseline to baseline on both sides of the floor, a complete performance from the first-year is key to a UNC victory. 

The battle down low

North Carolina has faced issues all year in the paint due to the lack of a true center. Duke and FSU are tied for the tallest teams in the nation, each averaging 6-foot-7 per player. The Blue Devil's 6-foot-9 Cooper Flagg and 7-foot-2 Khaman Maluach make up a lot of the team's height.

Duke ranks 39th in the nation in total rebounds. The Blue Devils are second in combined rebounds and first in combined opponent rebounds within the ACC. UNC ranks outside of the top-150 in total rebounding percentage.

The quartet of UNC forwards — first-year Drake Powell, junior Ven-Allen Lubin, graduate Jae’Lyn Withers and junior Jalen Washington — have to work in tandem to force the Blue Devils out of the paint, especially against Flagg. 

The Tar Heels have to balance their attention on Flagg and Maluach with a group rebounding strategy to keep the towering first-years from pushing the game out of reach.

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@dthsports | sports@dailytarheel.com