Analysis: UNC men's basketball off to worst start since the 2019-20 season

For the second time in three seasons, missing the NCAA tournament is once again a real possibility for the UNC men's basketball team. 

Just over two months into the season, the Tar Heels find themselves with a 9-6 record, their worst 15-game start to a season since the 2019-20 season, in which they finished 14-19. 

Following an embarrassing home loss to Alabama, North Carolina hosted Georgia Tech on Dec. 7 in its first conference game of the season. 

Despite outmatching the Yellow Jackets, UNC was never able to pull away, barely scraping by with a three-point win. The inability to win decisively against inferior teams brings back familiar memories of the 2022-23 Tar Heel team — the first preseason No. 1 team to ever miss an NCAA tournament.

UNC had a great opportunity to right the ship in the Jumpman Invitational against the undefeated Florida Gators on Dec. 17, but in classic 2024 North Carolina fashion, the Tar Heels found themselves down big at halftime. The team appeared disinterested until the second half. After UNC took an 84-82 lead with a little over two minutes remaining in the game, the Gators went on an 8-0 run to seal the win. Costly turnovers and the inability to get a defensive stop were responsible for UNC's late-game collapse. 

Then, UNC traveled to Madison Square Garden to take on 10-1 UCLA on Dec. 21. Yet again, UNC was down big, facing a 16-point deficit over seven minutes into the second half. But prolific play from both first-year guard Ian Jackson and graduate guard RJ Davis propelled North Carolina to a late two-point win. The win marked UNC's first over a ranked opponent and their only Quad-1 victory of the season, breathing life into a team starved of a big time win. 

After a win against Campbell on Dec. 29, the Tar Heels had an opportunity to build momentum against Louisville on Wednesday. UNC was down 70-69 with five minutes remaining after mounting another second half comeback. But in another late-game collapse, North Carolina only scored one point in the final five minutes, resulting in an 83-70 loss. The loss was the most jarring of the season, signifying UNC's inability to close out games.

One bright spot has been the emergence of Jackson. The highly touted recruit scored a career-high 27 points in a nail-biting, last-second win against Notre Dame on Saturday. Jackson became the first UNC first-year to record 20 or more points in four straight games since Tyler Hansbrough in 2005-06. If UNC wants to turn its season around, it has to turn to Jackson to assume the role of the primary shot creator. 

Davis' shooting woes have continued, with the guard shooting under 27 percent from beyond the arc — down 13 percent from last season. He is also averaging three fewer points per game than last season. Without Armando Bacot at center, teams are focusing on stonewalling Davis on the perimeter, limiting his offensive impact.

Two months into the season it is apparent that head coach Hubert Davis' prized transfer portal pickup, junior forward Cade Tyson, hasn't worked out. Tyson is shooting under 31 percent from 3-point range, down from 46 percent last season at Belmont. One year removed from landing key transfers Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan, it's safe to say that Davis' 2024 transfer class has failed to deliver the same impact.

While the Tar Heels have failed to live up to preseason expectations, a strong end to conference play can turn UNC's season around. Expectations should be tempered though — this is not the same team from a season ago. Volatile patterns of success may become a trend for North Carolina in the new era of NIL if changes are not made. 

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