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Column: The season is on the line in UNC's matchup with No. 2 Duke

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UNC graduate guard RJ Davis (4) hugs head coach Hubert Davis during the game against Campbell on Dec. 29, 2024 in the Dean Smith Center. UNC won 97-81.

Do or die.

It’s the theme of this year’s rivalry issue. But it’s also the theme of UNC’s season entering its first matchup with No. 2 Duke.

After a difficult non-conference schedule featuring five top-25 matchups, the Tar Heels wanted to enter ACC play on a better note. And for a while, it looked like they were finding their groove. But back-to-back losses to Stanford and Wake Forest added yet another blemish to UNC’s already battered NCAA tournament resume. UNC has just one Quad 1 win in eight games and one Quad 2 loss so far. 

And for a team that is sitting on the bubble for the NCAA tournament, this upcoming game against Duke is do or die. 

On Saturday, North Carolina has the chance to tally its best win of the season as it travels to take on Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels had high expectations entering this season with returning All-American graduate guard RJ Davis and after bringing in two top-15 recruits. They haven't lived up to the hype at all. The lack of a true inside presence hasn’t helped either. And now, the Tar Heels have their backs against the wall. 

Entering the season, North Carolina ranked as the No. 9 team in the country. RJ Davis, along with sophomore guard Elliot Cadeau, junior guard Seth Trimble and first-year guard Ian Jackson were slated to be one of the best backcourts in the country. 

But RJ Davis has struggled. The reigning ACC Player of the Year has averaged just over 39 percent from the field and is hitting only 29.5 percent of his 3-pointers. 

His average last season? 42.8 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from beyond the arc. 

In his last Duke game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, RJ Davis has the chance to do what he’s done before: help UNC win when it needs it the most. And although his jersey will forever hang in the rafters after last season's ACC Player of the Year award, it begs the question: will people remember his elite senior season, or his struggles in his final year in Chapel Hill? 

Meanwhile, it looked like all of Cadeau and Trimble's offseason work had paid off in UNC's season-opening win against Elon. The pair combined for 32 points and, along with RJ Davis, helped put the game away in the closing minutes. 

But after Trimble missed three games with a concussion, he looks hesitant. Cadeau’s outside shot hasn’t gotten to where it he needs to be. He's hitting on just 29.4 percent, which is close to an 11 percent increase from last season.

There's one player that's lived up to the hype — Jackson. After spending most of the early season coming in as a substitute, Jackson earned his place in the starting lineup during Trimble’s absence. He's been on a tear since then. 

But problems arise for North Carolina when he doesn’t shoot well. Against both Stanford and Wake Forest, Jackson scored six and seven points respectively and the Tar Heels lost both games. 

Heading into Duke and relying on a first-year who has never played in one of the most storied rivalries in college is not ideal. 

The bigger question for Head Coach Hubert Davis’ squad is the height matchup down low. After having multiple seasons to find a replacement for Armando Bacot who graduated last year, Hubert Davis failed to find a true successor at the five.

While he was adamant in the preseason about not missing out on any bigs in the portal and that he was happy with his roster, it’s come back to haunt him. The Tar Heels rank No. 89 in rebounds per game, far from what is typically expected of a UNC team. So, against a Duke team that features 6-foot-9 Cooper Flagg and 7-foot-2 Khaman Maluach, junior forwards Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin have the chance to prove everyone wrong. Or right. 

Questions surrounding Hubert Davis’ job security have already been swirling this season, but a win over Duke would calm all those nerves. Sure, it helps that he landed five-star forward Caleb Wilson in the 2025 class — along with other top recruits Isaiah Denis and Derek Dixon — but right now, winning is what matters.

It’s do or die.

@mdmaynard74

@dthsports | sports@dailytarheel.com

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