The second stage is slated to begin 42 days after the first. During this phase, remaining male Israeli hostages will be exchanged for more Palestinian prisoners as Israeli troops fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
Another 42 days later, deceased bodies will be exchanged, border crossings in Gaza reopened and a reconstruction plan will be implemented as parts of the final phase.
Aydin said there are fears that the ceasefire will be broken after the first stage.
“We know that this is the most extremist government in Israeli history,” he said. “At least the extremist partners of the Israeli government would want the ceasefire deal to be broken so that they can do more, they can erase more Palestinians and they can expand their own settled areas.”
Niccolo Luftig, a junior and vice president of UNC Hillel, said that while he hopes the ceasefire will last, he thinks that after hostages are returned, either side could escalate tensions again depending on circumstances. Luftig said that if the [Israeli] hostages aren’t returned in accordance with the deal, it’s more likely that Israel will act first.
American ties
Former President Joe Biden approved a ceasefire draft last year, but his plan failed to pass the United Nations Security Council in March. Biden publicly continued to send weapons and funds to Israel.
On Jan. 15, Biden released a statement saying he drafted the current deal in May 2024, after which it was unanimously approved by the UNSC.
“[The deal] is the result not only of the extreme pressure that Hamas has been under and the changed regional equation after a ceasefire in Lebanon and weakening of Iran — but also of dogged and painstaking American diplomacy,” he wrote.
Aydin said that the Jan. 20 inauguration of President Donald Trump may be the reason for the ceasefire finally passing, with the incoming president pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the deal.
A Jan. 19 press statement from UNC Students for Justice in Palestine echoes similar sentiments, stating the organization is troubled by the possibility Israel only agreed to ceasefire in exchange for commitments from Trump, such as recognizing a potential annexation of the West Bank.
The only thing allowing the occupation to continue, Aydin said, has been the support Netanyahu has received from the U.S. government. In the future, he said he can’t see a positive development if the government's stance on Israel remains consistent.
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Luftig said that the ceasefire means safety for people in Israel, but in the U.S. it means political success for Jewish voters who supported Biden in negotiating a ceasefire.
As an American Jew, he said he believes the war today is less about Israel and Palestine but more about how the conflict can benefit capitalist society in the West.
“As long as the war continues going, the Western companies keep making money,” he said.
Ceasefire impact and future
The SJP press release states that while the organization is concerned about the future of the ceasefire, they are taking the deal as a chance to grieve the lives lost and remain committed to UNC divestment from Israel and Israeli-supporting businesses.
"We also hope that the ceasefire will create an opportunity for international investigators to enter the Gaza Strip and gather evidence documenting Israel’s horrific genocide and crimes against humanity," they wrote.
In a Jan. 15 statement, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said he commends the United States, Egypt and Qatar as mediators in crafting the deal.
He said the UN’s priority is to ease suffering and provide relief for the Palestinians as they endure a "catastrophic" humanitarian crisis, and expects the UN's efforts to be matched by other initiatives.
“Ending the occupation and achieving a negotiated two-state solution, with Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace and security, in line with international law, relevant UN resolutions, and previous agreements remain an urgent priority,” Guterres said. “Only through a viable two-state solution can the aspirations of both peoples be fulfilled.”
UNC’s Arab Student organization refused The DTH’s requests for comment.
“I do think that this ceasefire is not going to be stable, and the reconstruction of Gaza will probably take twenty, thirty years if there are resources,” Aydin said.
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