When the Republican Party regained the White House in the 2024 election, winning every swing state and establishing a unified government in the process, it was interpreted by many as a political and cultural realignment toward the right. Many traditionally Democratic groups shifted heavily toward the GOP, delivering a broad Republican victory, including the first popular vote win for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years.
But while President Donald Trump's victory was broad, it was not particularly deep. Trump carried North Carolina by slightly over three percentage points, which Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein won by about 15 percentage points. Pre-election polls showed that two issues — the economy and immigration — were by far the most important to voters. Because current opinion polling reveals voters largely approve of the president’s performance on immigration, it is reasonable to assume that his presidency, and by extension the electoral success of the Republican Party moving forward, will depend on how the president handles the economy.
If he delivers on a pro-growth agenda with rising pay and falling inflation, the tide of economic optimism will lift the GOP’s electoral prospects, boost the party’s midterm performance and solidify North Carolina’s status as a lean-red swing state. But if he continues with haphazard, disruptive trade policies as the preeminent tool in his economic repertoire, his coattails will further worsen the position of an NCGOP still licking its wounds from the electoral drubbing Mark Robinson took in November.
The dilemma and its ramifications for North Carolina and the GOP are evident in opinion polls: a poll of N.C. voters from Meredith College shows Trump essentially even in his net approval rating, but it also shows that a strong majority of voters in the state expect their financial situation to improve over the next year. To the extent that these expectations are built into his current approval, a decline in voters’ purchasing power resulting from tariffs would inevitably undercut his support. While tariffs on countries like China are arguably justifiable from a national security standpoint, tariffs on America's allies are far harder to defend. And North Carolina, which is the second-largest importer from Europe of all 50 states — taking in about 45 percent of its imports from the continent — would be harmed in ways voters would directly correlate with the administration's policies.
In the national polling, the president's issue-specific approval ratings reflect this reality. In his first term, President Trump’s approval rating on the economy was always higher than his overall approval rating; now, the reverse is true. It isn’t difficult to connect the dots between the disruptive trade policy Trump has promoted and the worry Americans are expressing.
Fortunately, there is a path that the Trump administration could take that would thread the needle between market-undercutting protectionism and the soulless globalism that Trumpism seeks to root out. He could use tariffs as he has used them in the past, as negotiating tools to apply pressure and deliver wins for Americans. Examples could include cajoling other countries into reducing their tariffs on American exports, potentially pushing Russia to the negotiating table with Ukraine or achieving immigration-related deals with Mexico and various other countries south of the border as he has done before.
Tariffs have incredible promise as a scalpel-like instrument for nudging allies and enemies alike in directions favorable to American interests. But the bottom line is blunt force economic warfare is bad for consumers, bad for companies and bad for Republican prospects in North Carolina and other swing states. If Trump and the Republicans want to make gains in 2026 and set up the GOP’s 2028 nominee for a successful passing of the torch, a strong economy is a nonnegotiable, and Trump would do well to remember that.
