Preview: Three keys for UNC men's basketball to take down No. 2 Duke

Following a 20-point loss to Clemson on February 10, the North Carolina men’s basketball team’s tournament odds were bleak. 

But late season lineup changes and hot hands from the beyond the arc have catapulted UNC to a six-game win streak. 

Entering Saturday’s rematch against rival Duke at the Dean E. Smith Center, North Carolina has a 1-10 Quad 1 record and is on the NCAA tournament bubble. A win would drastically improve UNC’s odds at hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. 

Here are three keys to the Tar Heels securing their second Quad 1 win of the season: 

3-point shooting

North Carolina has been on fire from beyond the arc, converting on over 47 percent of their attempts over the last six games. 

Graduate forward Jae’Lyn Withers has been the catalyst of UNC's recent success from 3-point range, shooting over 56 percent on a little under four attempts per game during that six game stretch. 

“He just takes our team to a different level because we don’t have anybody with that combination of size, athleticism and versatility that can do a number of things on both ends of the floor,” head coach Hubert Davis said. “And I would say over the last month it’s really all come together for him.” 

After failing to convert on more than two 3-pointers in eight straight games prior to the win streak, first-year guard Ian Jackson is shooting north of 60 percent on 28 attempts over his last six games. 

When the Tar Heels shoot 40 percent or higher from beyond the arc, they are 8-1. When they shoot under 30 percent, they are 2-7. 

The Tar Heels have to maintain their hot shooting if they want to counter Duke, who ranks fourth in scoring defense in the nation. 

Size

North Carolina has not looked back since Hubert Davis decided to play with two big men. The Tar Heels are 6-1 since moving to a starting lineup consisting of Withers and junior forward Ven-Allen Lubin. 

The added size to North Carolina’s lineups have limited opponents' effectiveness on the glass. 

“There’s a number of things that we’ve improved on,” Hubert Davis said. “The consistency on both ends, just the consistency of doing the little things on the defensive end in terms of boxing out, rebounding, trying to defend without fouling, protecting the paint.”

During the six game win streak, UNC has allowed opponents to grab just 24 rebounds per game. In the 25 games prior, opponents tallied over 33 rebounds per game. 

In the first matchup, the Blue Devils deployed a switch-everything approach which made UNC’s ball screens easy to guard. But the increased size and length in the lineup will make this approach more difficult to execute for Duke. 

“Having a bigger lineup gives us an advantage to match with them,” graduate guard RJ Davis said.

RJ Davis

169 games and 2,620 points later, graduate guard RJ Davis is set to take the court at the Smith Center one last time. 

“I’m excited and I don’t think I really [have] put into perspective that this is actually my last time playing on the Smith Center floor,” Davis said. “But I’m just excited because of the stretch that we’ve had so far.”

Plagued by shooting inconsistencies and opponents' increased defensive focus this season, RJ Davis is finding his rhythm at the perfect time. The graduate guard is shooting 60 percent from beyond the arc over the last three games. 

When Davis scores 20 or more points, UNC is 7-2. He had just 12 in the team's earlier matchup in Durham this season. 

“To be able to stay at one institution for five years under the way college is right now is very rare," Hubert Davis said. "And I don’t know how many times that’s going to happen.”

It’s simple: put the ball in the hands of UNC's second all-time leading scorer. 

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