In the Republican Party’s game of deal or no deal, Donald Trump chose the former.
The 2016 GOP presidential candidate recently signed a pledge of allegiance with the party, decreasing the probability of a third party bid from the businessman — though in the August GOP debate, Trump said he would run independently if need be.
Mitch Kokai, director of communications at the John Locke Foundation, said Trump’s promised loyalty has benefits for both the Republican Party and the candidate himself.
“For Trump, the pledge gives potential Republican supporters assurance that he’s not out simply to wreck the election or offer some sort of support for a Democratic candidacy,” Kokai said in an email.
He said the pledge also reassures the Republican Party that history will not repeat itself — referring to the 1992 election, when third-party candidate Ross Perot won enough voters from the Republicans that he helped Democrat Bill Clinton win the race.
But if Trump continues behaving in typical Trump style, the pledge may not be a total reassurance.
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball — an political analysis site — said although Trump seems to be all-in with the Republican Party right now, the pledge is not legally enforceable.
“There's nothing stopping Trump from turning around later in the campaign and running as a third party candidate,” Kondik said in an email.
James Stimson, political science professor at UNC, said it’s too early for the polls showing Trump in the lead to matter, and also too early for people to care.
“Most Americans, unlike the wildly atypical people who comment on television, have no interest in the campaign and have not had one coherent thought about who they want to be President,” Stimson said in an email. “Thus the net result of interviewing such people is the political equivalent of garbage collection.”
Kokai said Trump’s decision not to run independently matters mostly to Republicans or people who spend a lot of time in the political process.
“For the vast majority of people, much of the campaign news at this point is noise,” Kokai said.
So wave your hands in the air if you just don’t care -- and pick up some headphones.
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